It’s Almost June

Not that June means anything in itself, but it’s not May. Hopefully, June provides some time to digest recent events. I think it’s likely we see some more chop before resuming a trend in any direction, but in the meantime, BTC found a small bit of demand, catching a relief bounce of about 13% over that last few days.

BTC Weekly

Meanwhile, the DXY is in it’s first drawback of any consequence since it dropped about 4% from March 31 through May 25 in 2021. In fact, the DXY has been in a range between $87~$89 to $100~103 since late-2014/early-2015, so it will be interesting to see if DXY falls back inside this almost seven year range, potentially bringing the range lows back into play. A weakening dollar has historically been very positive for BTC as well, this the recent DXY lows correspond to BTC highs and vice versa.

DXY Weekly
BTC & DXY, weekly. Note DXY RSI shows it’s most overbought level level since early 2015.

Alternatively, this could just be a retest of the range highs before DXY explodes higher to match its high around $120 from March 2002, causing serious issues for the global economy.

DXY Monthly

ETHBTC continues to slide down towards the lower end of its year-long range. The bear market in prices has leaked also impacted NFT volumes and most other uses cases for ETH, while macro demand for BTC has been relatively more attractive.

ETHBTC Daily

Going back further to March 2018, the current range is actually nothing new Perhaps ETHBTC will test the lows of the extended range (tiny blue box) in time for the ETH 2 merge, which will likely turn issuance of ETH negative enough to outpace general macro demand for BTC.

ETBTC Weekly

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